Inflation Outlook June 2022 – Goods Shortages, Inflation & Long-term Debt

June 20 16:36 2022

While massive fiscal stimulus supported the economy during the pandemic, it also contributed to goods shortages, inflation, and long-term debt. In March 2021, the USA goverment signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, into law. This, along with other monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, increased demand for goods and services, which in turn led to higher prices. In fact, from May 2021 to May 2022 the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 8.6 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981 as per bls.gov

The Federal Reserve has said that it expects inflation to be transitory and will use all tools available to mitigate rising rates. However, some economists are concerned that the Fed may not be able to keep inflation under control.

Inflation expectations have risen in recent months. We anticipate that inflation will continue to be a major concern for both customers and firms in the coming months. The Fed is widely expected to continue raising interest rates in response to rising inflationary pressures. This, in turn, is likely to lead to higher mortgage rates and other borrowing costs, which could put a squeeze on household budgets. 

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